Since 1986, Mori Building Co., Ltd. (Minato-ku, Tokyo; President & CEO Shingo Tsuji) has regularly conducted market surveys of demand and supply trends for 10,000m²-class or higher office buildings that were constructed in Tokyo's 23 wards since 1986 (hereinafter referred to as "large-scale office buildings"). Through analysis of the results of this survey from diverse angles, future office market trend forecasts are also developed. We are pleased to present you with the results of our survey in the following report.
■Summary of the Results
・The vacancy rate in the 23 wards peaked at the end of 2012 (7.8%) and is forecast to fall to 7.0% at the end of 2013.
・The vacancy rate in the Central 3 Wards has been flat since the end of 2012 (6.5%) and is forecast to stay at the same rate until the end of 2013.
・The vacancy rate in other 20 wards peaked at the end of 2012 (9.3%) and is forecast to fall to 7.7% at the end of 2013.
■Supply Trends
＜Tokyo's 23 Wards＞
・The annual supply over the next 5 years from 2013 to 2017 (930,000m²/year) will fall below the average from 1986 through 2012 (1,050,000m²/year).
・Supply in 2013 (580,000m²) is forecast to be at a lower level, reaching only 33% of last year (1,750,000m²) and only 55% of the average from 1986 through 2012 (1,050,000m²/year).
＜Central 3 Wards＞
・The average annual supply over the next 5 years from 2013 to 2017 (670,000m²/year) will fall below the average of the past decade (810,000m²/year).
■Demand Trends
＜Tokyo's 23 Wards＞
・Absorption capacity in 2012 (1,390,000m²) fell below supply volume (1,750,000m²). Consequently, the vacancy rate at the end of 2012 increased.
・Absorption capacity in the first half of 2013 (590,000m²) exceeded the supply volume (410,000m²). Consequently, the vacancy rate fell to 7.0% (0.8 point decrease compared with the end of 2012).
＜Central 3 Wards＞
・Absorption capacity in 2012 (780,000m²) fell below supply volume (970,000m²). Consequently, the vacancy rate at the end of 2012 increased.
・Absorption capacity in the first half of 2013 (360,000m²) remained at approximately the same level as the supply volume (390,000m²), leaving the vacancy rate flat at 6.6%.
■Others
・On September 8, 2013, Tokyo was selected as the venue for the 2020 Olympics and Paralympics. This together with the growth strategy of the Abe Administration will benefit the economy as a whole over the next 7 years. It is also expected that the office market in Tokyo will be positively impacted by this economic growth.