Since 1986, Mori Building Co., Ltd. (Minato-ku, Tokyo; President & CEO Shingo Tsuji) has regularly conducted market surveys of supply and demand trends for 10,000m²-class or higher office buildings that were constructed in Tokyo's 23 Wards since 1986 (hereinafter referred to as "large-scale office buildings"). Through analysis of the results of this survey from diverse angles, future office market trend forecasts are also developed. We are pleased to present you with the results of our survey in the following report.
■Summary of the Results
・The vacancy rate in T okyo's 23 Wards peaked at the end of 2012 (7.8%), fell during the p ast two consecutive years, and is forecast to be 4.6% at the end of 2014.
・The vacancy rate in the Central 3 Wards is forecast to fall t o 4.3% at the end of 2014 from its 5.9% level at the end of 2013.
■Supply Trends
＜Tokyo's 23 Wards＞
・The annual supply over the next 5 years from 2014 to 2018 is forecast to be 1,060,000m²/year, exceeding the past annual average of 1,040,000m²/year.
・Supply in 2014 (880,000m²) is forecast to reach 152% of last year's level (580,000m²), which is below the past average (1,040,000m²).
＜Central 3 Wards＞
・The average annual supply over the next 5 years from 2014 to 2018 (730,000m²/year) will exceed the average of the past decade (680,000m²/year).
■Demand Trends
＜Tokyo's 23 Wards＞
・Absorption capacity in 2013 (990,000m²) exceeded supply volume (580,000m²). Consequently, the vacancy rate at the end of 2013 fell compared with the end of 2012.
・Absorption capacity in the first half of 2014 (970,000m²) exceeded the supply volume (660,000m²). Consequently, the vacancy rate fell once again, hitting 5.0% (1.2 pts. lower th an at the end of 2013).
＜Central 3 Wards＞
・Absorption capacity in 2013 (610,000m²) exceeded supply volume (540,000m²). Consequently, the vacancy rate at the end of 2013 fell compared with the end of 2012.
・Absorption capacity in the first half of 2014 (710,000m²) exceeded supply volume (600,000m²). Consequently, the vacancy rate fell once again, hitting 5.1% (1.2 pts. lower th an at the end of 2013).